Sentient Insight: the business blog for consumer psychology and consumer marketing

It’s fourth down with two yards to go. You’re facing the decision to punt the ball to Peyton Manning and Colts offense with a little over 2 minutes to play and giving your defense the chance to stop a touchdown drive, or to go for it and essentially end the game with a first down. In the decision sciences we call this type of situation: “decision making under uncertainty”. Rational decision theory says that we calculate or estimate the likely probability of success in each scenario and we choose the option with the greatest expected utility. In this case, a rational decision-maker chooses the option with the highest probability of winning.

Sentient recently partnered with Schneider Associates and Information Resources, INC. (IRI) to conduct the eighth annual Most Memorable New Product Launch Survey. This year’s results found KFC’s grilled chicken at the top of the list, with 40 percent of consumers remembering this product launch. In fact, five of the top 10 most remembered new product launches this year were fast food brands – KFC Grilled Chicken, McDonald’s McCafe, Quiznos Torpedo sandwiches, McDonald’s Angus Deluxe and Taco Bell Volcano Nachos. This reversed a trend of technology product launches being most remembered in the 2007 and 2008 surveys. Notably, KFC’s top spot could partially be due to a brand “blunder.”

Take a moment and let your mind wander; inhale deeply, exhale, and find your neutral state. Now click play on the video below. You might want to turn down your speaker volume a little. Are you smiling? Did you laugh out loud? My guess is that, like me, some of this little boy’s infectious (even zealous) excitement rubbed off on you. Look at how wide his mouth gets. That thunderous enthusiasm flooding his body makes his arms tremble as he holds the box in front of him. His hungry hands claw across its surface, proving to himself that it is, in fact, Christmas morning and not a deceitful dream. The tidal volume of his voice never drops below a bestial shriek. Now watch the video again, but this time pay careful attention to the arguably more interesting character in this gripping melodrama:...

Flash sales bring up all sorts of interesting shopper behaviors – some which are very new to shopper culture, and some which have been around longer. Buyer’s remorse, for example, has been around a long time – about as long as people have been exchanging goods and services for currency (in one of its many historic forms). But “hot-state” decision-making: decisions that are made within time constraints and spurred by competition – are veritable pressure-cookers for consumers. And they’re being used more and more in the retail space.